This update is late, but its better late than never! I want to wish all of my readers a very happy new year and all the best in 2013, including good health, family and friendship love, happiness and life satisfaction, goal achievements and of course.... prosperity too.
The photo was taken by my younger brother with the iPhone during the Sydney fireworks, as a group of six close friends and business partners (part of our fund) watched the mega fire works finale from the party at the Opera House that went for about 13 minutes. It was absolutely amazing and an experience of a life time! Big thanks goes to a friend who organised it all. Below is a better shot from the Sydney newspapers:
Regarding the markets, they have not been kind to me since middle of November with Silver correcting and US stocks recovering back towards new bull market highs. Also, my currency position in the Yen has suffered too. For me, what is more important is the exit of the positions in a few quarters or years from now, and not what has happened over the last few weeks. Nonetheless, not a good finish to the year in all honesty.
As always, I will be getting back to updating my view on the markets and the global economy throughout January.
Wishing all of you a very happy new year! ~ Tiho
p.s. Also... I am sorry if I haven't replied to your email regarding the markets. I always try and reply to everyones email as soon as possible, so I will get there in the coming days (or weeks hehe)!
Tiho very nice. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteAnd all the gold bugs are jealous now as they have to eat ramen noodles after our awful 2012.
Happy new year Tiho, got a very poor beginning trading here too... :-(
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to your updates :-)
Happy New Year Tiho!
ReplyDeleteTo Anonymous/Tim in the last post:I'm talking about total speculative positioning in the Peso,including large Specs.In the yen it's both total and retail that are at record levels.And they didn't get it right in 2007 and 2009.Small speculators on the S&P did,but those in the currency markets got obliterated.Go back to 2007 and also 2009 2010 and 2011 and have a look at the positioning in the Peso and juxtapose a chart of the S&P and see how they fared...
On a different note,I think the time has finally come to go long coffee(with a modest position of course given the extreme volatility of this commodity).The only caveat is the huge small spec net long position,which however might have been cleared during the last few days:we'll see when the next COT report comes out.Sugar continues to be a core holding of mine and is behaving properly in all respects(price,technicals,sentiment and positioning),whilst cotton doesn't appeal to me right now,as the recent modest rally generated an out-of-proportion reaction in terms of both sentiment and positioning:I think this commodity has to remain in purgatory for a bit longer.
DeleteWe have a very serious problem. In gold, everyone is loaded to the gills expecting hyperinflation that will never materialize and governments are getting outright nasty. We have THREE Monthly Bearish Reversals that have now lined up in gold at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good. Gold closed 2012 higher than it did for 2011 on the 13th year up. That is by no means good at all. If these reversals are elected, look out below. We may have to clean house before gold can resume the uptrend.
ReplyDeleteMartin Armstrong
Gold at 1676 as I type. I do not own gold so not a gold bug but am curious to learn more about this possible collapse in gold.
DeleteTo me, as a gold novice, there seems quite a way down from 1676 to the mid 1500s, let alone to well below 1200. Is that at all likely?
Surely that would crush silver as well?
it looks as if Martin Armstrong is right again
DeleteWho is Martin Armstrong?
Deleteamazing photo Tiho. many tanks for your blog.
ReplyDeleteflo
Looks like a firework misfire on the bridge in that second photo.
ReplyDeletealmost everywhere you look, the outlook for gold seems to be getting worse - which at some pint, will set up to be a fantastic buying opp. if the economy tanks.
ReplyDeleteGold drops over 1 pct as Fed statement shows growing doubts about QE
2:19 PM (GMT-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada) Jan 03, 2013
NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed rising concern among policymakers about the risks of the central bank's policy of buying bonds to boost economic growth.
Most of the gold bug sites (BBT, smart money etc ) are infighting among each other and with members. It seems everyone was wrong on the gold bull in 2012 and now they arguing what is next for gold. I don't visit the site anymore. I've had it with these newsletters that change stories every week about what will make gold move.
ReplyDeleteHi Tiho:
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year!
You have the view on the market, the real one you have. I apply your view to the market with my 2T system (timing and time frame). It's a (keep it) super simple system (kiss system)
Very appreciate it!
Hope to hear from you soon,
Joe
(a lot of market book like my name such as 'average Joe')
Short equities and long PMs has to be the worst trade right now. Gold longs and equity shorts are getting taken to the cleaners. Looking like an ugly year for gold bugs. Good luck Tiho!
ReplyDeleteIt "looks" bad but it is not as bad as it looks. S&P 500 is only up about 5% since August of 2012. At the same time Silver is actually up by at least a few bucks, which is over 10%, since August 2012. Like I said, it looks bad, but it is not as bad as it looks. Nevertheless, it could even get worse before it gets better, but my view is that equities will soon enter a cyclical bear market while PMs will eventually resume their secular bull market, even if they correct further.
DeleteHappy new year!
Thank you for all the new year wishes. Over the coming days I will be updating the blog on the overall global macro conditions and my views into 2013.
ReplyDeleteWish you happy new year ..Very informative article...Nice post..
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your great work Tiho and may you have much success in 2013. Love your blog.
ReplyDelete