I've added a new page on the blog called Blog Charts. It is pretty much a basic selection of important indicators I tend to follow from week to week, and from month to month. Obviously there are many, but for now, I've just included these basic ones.
So far I've included charts that focus on sentiment, credit spreads, financial stress, volatility, asset performance, economic data, leading indicators, inflation, corporate profits etc. I will be updating the page few times a month, I guess. It all depends on my work load. All feedback is appreciated so leave some comments in regards to what else you want to see on the page (or what you want removed).
Finally, all eyes will be on Bernanke this morning in the US. I will be watching closely to see if the "money printing king" will give us any hints towards further stimulus in the shape of balance sheet expansion (QE3). In recent weeks retail sales have fallen once again (three straight months now), non-farm payrolls remain relatively weak month after month and manufacturing PMI has contracted for the first time since 2009.
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Furthermore, since Off Topic posts are meant to try and bring at least a bit of humour to this whole finance thing, let me post a video which was sent to me by a friend. It definitely made me laugh!
HAHA,I like the last one the most.
ReplyDeletehahaha!
ReplyDeleteJust enter order to sell all high yield junk bonds upon HYG showing technical weakness...negative RSI divergence and bearish MACD cross.
ReplyDeleteShould I buy more Mortgage Back Security based on today's Bernanke testimony? Look's like Bill Gross is well positioned for the next round of Fed easing/asset buy.
Tiho, please comment.
@Edwin huh? Bernanke said today that housing was the only green shoots left. Not sure why he would buy MBS?
ReplyDeleteAh.... Bernanke suggested during the Hearing this morning that buying MBS is one of the (assets buying) possibilities.
DeleteDuring the Hearing, it is evident (another confirmation?) that Bernanke was being naive in thinking that bond holders may be enticed to buy stocks...wrong! Tell that to my friends..they hoards MBS,corporate and municipal bonds: exercise and sell all their stock options as soon as they can; and when their 5 years old CDs matured in the past 12 months, they hold CASH. They are waiting for DJI 5,000 because the current growth/deficit situation is unsustainable.
Bond holders(talking treasuries here) cant really buy stocks unless the bonds mature or something. Its not possible because when someone sells somebody ese has to buy. Unless the Fed prints more money and buys treasuries. Right now they are not. This is also why cash on the sidelines is another myth.
Deletehttp://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc060710.htm
There is definitely a Bernanke Put in the market environment, but it is very obvious to all that this Put isn't for the stock or the commodity market - but the Bond market. Bernanke has been buying Bonds since late 2008 and is currently buying the long end of the curve while pegging the short end towards 0%. Furthermore, he is promising more bond buying in the future, whenever that is.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, Bernanke has created a huge Bond Bubble. Like all bubbles, they go much further than anyone of us think they will, but eventually end in a total disaster. So to answer your question with all of that in mind, if you are willing to play the bond bubble, than buying MBS or Treasuries definitely makes sense as Bernanke will eventually act.
Finally, while I cannot forecast the future, I am definitely in the camp that March 2009 was the nominal low of the secular bear market. So while I am expecting another major bear market of 30% to 40%, I hardly doubt that the Dow Jones will make it all the way to 5,000 in a full blown deflationary panic.
Thanks. Tiho, I would use VIX (hopefully a reading above 80) as the guideline for the near generational buy opportunity.
Delete@edwin I definitely agree with you we are going to get a generational buy opportunity. However that could take years. May not be DOW 5000 but some sort of DOW:gold ratio <2.
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