Trading Dairy Update
- I have purchased some small exposure towards Brent Crude Oil (BNO), Mosaic Fertiliser (MOS) and Spot Silver (SLV) last night in US trade. I think Oil is very oversold, Agricultural companies like Mosaic have been slaughtered in the last 18 months and finally, Silver might be ready to break its short term triangle on the upside.
- I am also still holding onto that core Silver position from late December 2011 bottom at $26.
- Risk assets still remain on my watch list for some shorter term bullish rebound trades. These include Brent Crude (BNO), Commodity Indices (GCC / RJI), Precious Metals (GLD, SLV, CEF, PSLV, etc) and Agriculture (RJA / MOS). I believe commodities are very oversold right now and should bounce soon.
- I am waiting for an equity & currency market rebound first, before engaging into some shorts, as I believe a global bear market is here. I will compile a list of assets to short as we get closer to the US election.
Hello Sir,
ReplyDeleteDon't you expect any sell off on silver due to FOMC when Bernanke speaks?
I am a silver investor and underwater over 1 year and I still hold all silver.
Do you have any time projection for silver to go up?
Thank you.
RB
Hi there RB. I bought Silver because I expect it break upwards out of its triangle for awhile, which I wrote about last week. It is a small position as a trade. If it reverses and breaks down, it will trigger my small stop loss. I do not believe Gold, Silver or PMs have yet finished their bear market, but a rally could happen here.
ReplyDeleteFinally, I do not have any price projections or time projections. I am not good at fortune telling or card reading or weather forecasting... I'll leave that to all the professionals on other blogs and on CNBC. I just believe in the PMs secular bull market over the long term. It will finish, when it turns into a major bubble and than I will sell, several years from now!
Thank you.
DeleteHave a nice day and trade.
RB
Good morning,
ReplyDeleteI'm interested in speaking to you about your content. Please contact me at lee AT forexpros DOT com.
Thank you,
Lee
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Just keep in mind, Tiho, that one of the very cool things about your blog here is your independence and lack of filter.
Delete'Short rebound' in commodities? You share the idea of going lower in CRB and in oil from here ?
ReplyDeleteCommodities are extremely oversold and CRB Index has been declining since May 2011. As a matter of fact, Agriculture has been down since February 2011. So these assets are oversold and unloved. Having said that, if China has a hard landing (and majority of hedge fund managers think it won't - see previous post) than Oil could trade closer to $60 than $100 in coming quarters.
ReplyDeleteCongrats on the MOS trade. Today DBA made a classic 1-2-3 reversal - after accumulating volume on green days for the last two months, it gapped up today on almost tripple the size of shares traded and never looked back. And this move was confirmed by the Agrobusiness companies. That does not look to me like a bear market rally :)
DeleteWhat if Silver breaks down out of your triangle?
ReplyDeleteLol! Well if Silver breaks down, I'll close my long and open a short for a short term trade.
DeleteI agree on agriculture. Let's see when coffee bottoms :)
ReplyDeleteCheers, Ivan
It's amazing to see S&P stage a bottom between middle of May and early June, while other risk assets like for example Silver, bottom around similar time frame and yet struggled to move north. It is not a good sign in the short term!
ReplyDeleteRJA and MOS are up a lot today. Agriculture
ReplyDeleteWhat do you make of the VIX falling so low?
ReplyDeleteThat it's time to short stocks soon!
ReplyDeleteSo you believe the low VIX is a sign of unjustified optimism which is ignoring the European Sovereign Debt crisis
DeleteWhat if the Fed decides to assist further via some sort of extension or new QE policy
The saying goes dont fight the Fed