- I have closed all SPY Calls at the open as already posted in the comments section of previous blog post yesterday morning. I do not own any other equity positions in my portfolio.
- I have closed all SLV Calls and other positions at the open as already posted in the comments section of previous blog post yesterday morning too. However, I am also still holding onto that core Silver position from late December 2011 bottom at $26.
- I still own a very small position in Agricultural commodities through RJA ETF last week. I haven't done anything else major in this sector just yet.
- Risk assets still remain on my watch list for some shorter term bullish rebound trades. These include Brent Crude (BNO), Commodity Indices (GCC / RJI), Precious Metals (GLD, SLV, CEF, PSLV, etc) and more Agriculture (RJA). I believe commodities are very oversold right now and should ounce soon.
- I am waiting for a market rebound first, before engaging into some shorts.
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Trading Dairy Update
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Tiho,
ReplyDeletePlease post when to initiate SLV call again with some good timing.
When it breaks above $29 and $30 level in proper fashion I guess.
ReplyDeleteThanks Tiho! I hope that's sooner but if FED introduces next to nothing, PMs will have hard time, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteGold is up 12 bucks today and Silver is flat... again. That is he reason I have sold my short term PMs bets. The current price action doesn't look very good to me at present. I still own my core physical silver holding since December. As for the question regarding Fed, I do not think they will act in a strong manner. Extending the Twist program won't do much in my opinion. Bold and Silver crashed as Fed introduced Twist...
ReplyDeleteTiho,
ReplyDeleteGood evening to you Tiho(I'm over here in London). I'm quite interested in your comments about Silver and I guess these may relate to Gold too seeing as they generally move together even if silver tends to be more extreme in both directions.
On the fundamentals side, I would say that conditions are pretty promising for both PM's at present especially when you consider that there will have to be some major money printing to stabilise and ring-fence the Spanish banking system. Greece will also hold the EU to ransom too so I feel gold and silver are looking pretty positive on this front too. I have a feeling that the EU leaders will do whatever is possible to keep Greece in the EU as their departure would simply open a can of worms and would set a precedent for others to leave in the future too. Therefore, I'm expecting huge stimulus during 2012 especially with stock markets looking weak in what is after all a US election year. I doubt the FED will want to take any chances come July or August.
Now onto my main point... the technical situation or the charts. I only really use the daily charts for my trading and I have to say that the daily charts are starting to look quite bullish for silver and gold. Silver, today, has closed above the resistance level of 2,874 which has been a ceiling for almost a month. The 8 & 21 Day EMAs are also turning up now and with the 2,874 level potentially being the new support level, I can see silver popping higher to challenge the next major resistance which is 2,984 on the weekly chart. Put quite simply, price action looks robust and it could become strong.
Gold looks even better. There was a major bullish pin bar on the 12 June and price has been moving higher since even though I admit daily price really needs to close above 1,623/5. However the 8 & 21 day EMAs are turning up strongly and gold has in fact closed above the 50 day EMA today. I really don't see this as being bearish.
In my opinion, both PM's could pop higher very soon looking at the charts.
Time will tell I guess. This weekend will be quite critical with it being the Greek elections. Great writing as ever Tiho. Keep up the great work!!
Best Regards,
Jon
Hey there Jon. Thank you for a very nice write up there, I've really enjoyed reading your perspectives. Let me comment on some of the points you have put forward:
ReplyDeleteLong term fundamentals are extremely promising for PMs. I still hold my position and will do so until the final secular peak (blow off top). I think the lower the price goes, the better the buying opportunity, obviously. Technically, I have discussed my own personal view on Silver's price. I believe the current triangle decision point might decide how prices move in coming weeks.
Regarding a stimulus, I have heard on Bloomberg today that 75% of market participants surveyed by Citibank expect QE3. On the other hand, a very good trader over at Solar Cycles believes we most likely won't get a QE3. I sort of side with him more, for now anyway. Eventually, as the bear market keeps moving lower, money printing will come back, not in billions, but most likely trillions. Both of us could be wrong because elections are coming as you already mentioned, so Bernanke might do Obama a favour and everyone is happy!
Finally, enjoy the Greek elections and maybe even have a beer or two while you are at it. At least with beer and some nuts, it won't be a dud like it is panning out to be...
Tiho