It has been awhile since I've posted about what I am doing in the market, because to be quite honest there hasn't been anything new. I am still bullish on Silver, on Agriculture and bearish on the US Dollar. Here are some new points to note about the funds portfolio:
- The recent sell off in Silver from $37.50 around the start of the month, towards $31 into late last week is an opportunity in my opinion. I have added some positions through COMEX futures and through iShares SLV ETF, and reduce some positions from the Sprott Physical ETF. I still hold similar exposure, but I just diversified my holdings into different vehicles. Update: Re-Balancing Exposure
- Rogers Agriculture RJA ETF has had a decent bounce from the lows since we bought it. I think majority of the time, assets do not bottom on a V trough and that is what we have here. Therefore I closed the position for a decent profit and expect a retest of lows. At that point I will most likely add the position again. Update: Taking Profits
- Shorting US Dollar through buying Swiss Franc is still a position I hold without any changes. I remain bullish on the Euro, so since Franc is pegged to it, it should do as well as the Euro or possibly even better. Update: Holding Position
New ideas, opinions, opportunities and positions:
- Rice futures look very interesting for a break out from a bottoming base around here. I have minimum position as a trade more than anything else, but this is through one of my personal accounts.
- Soft commodities have under-performed all other risk assets including equities, junk bonds, energy, metals, grains, commodity currencies and pretty much all other asset classes to be honest. Coffee, Cotton and Sugar are depressed at these levels and are a great opportunity, so watch for the end of the bear market here, which started in early 2011.
- Apple has gone parabolic, which majority of you already know. I'm thinking about adding some long dated Puts on this company as a hedge for my commodity longs. It won't cost me more than a few percentage points of NAV, but the risk to reward is insane if the price crashes to the downside.
I'll be updating the Portfolio Page sometime at the end of the month, start of new month. As always it is interesting to hear opinions, so do share...
I actually said I wouldnt comment until Wheat hit $5 but how did you get a SIK12 contract for $26.75 and slv positon for $26.10?
ReplyDeleteI bought futures through CFD margin position on 29th, as well as SLV. I also own PSLV on that day too. I've add some positions again around $32 and reduced some PSLV.
Deletep.s.does that mean if Wheat never goes to $5 you will never comment?
DeleteTrue to my word I will not comment on your trading until W hits $5...still would like to better understand how you were able to secure a CFD in silver for $26.75 when the of sliver has not been under $30 since late Jan and SLV for $26.10 - You mean Dec 29th, 2011 but you are just now updating the trade???
DeleteYes. If you have some "doubts" please shoot me an email and ill screen shot my positions for you to personally approve back in late December.
DeleteI recently also bought some positions as Silver corrected about 16% in the last few weeks.
yea I will shoot you an email - but screen shot or not you might want to update positons a little more timely or be known as the best "in the past" trader around
DeleteThanks for the nice compliment, so I shot you of an email.
DeleteIn regards to timing, I'll leave that for the markets, where I get paid to be on time... unless of course... you are interest to pay a salary for me to write a blog?
What do you think about the aussie dollar? Is there a top?
ReplyDeleteBen
Aussie Dollar topped between May 2012 and August 2011 at around $1.10. Than a correction took it lower towards $0.94 into October 04th bottom. Now we have a recovery, but we have yet made a new high.
ReplyDeleteIf we do not make a new high, it will be a bad signal for risk on trade and also a potential signal for Chinese. Economy slowing down meaningfully. At the same time, the current pullback from $1.0850 towards $1.04 is still a correction that does not signal anything too bearish just yet.
Failure on new highs in the future is e key dial, so hopefully Aussie can move higher above $1.10, if not, the trend might be changing since March 09 lows.
IMHO, AAPL just broke out from a tight flag pattern, meaning it could have a lot of upside left, plus you even mentioned this market could make all time high. TZ thought it topped at $520, Doc & Saladenator at $530. All these guys I considered smart, but AAPL thought otherwise. Everyone thought it was parabolic $80 ago. I still don't understand why people try to short the strongest stock in an up market. Why not just short weak stocks like APOL instead ?
ReplyDeleteEveryone has their own style of investment and trading. I understand your point of view and the wisdom you have put forward about shorting weak stocks and being long strong ones. That is fine for someone, but that is not my style of investment.
ReplyDeleteit is similar to when you play football. You either like to play striker position or you like to play defender. You are either good at being offensive or defensive. I prefer contrarian style of investment and my blog is about picking bottoms and tops - turning points.
Tiho - Fair enough. I guess you can borrow my shares to short :-)
ReplyDeleteI do not want to borrow any shares, I'll just buy some Puts. Shorting is not something that I commonly do, but I think Apple parbolic is worth a try. *smile*
ReplyDelete