With the end of January, brings us to the end of the blog survey in regards to asset allocations in 2012. Thank you for all who voted, we really appreciate it. As we can see from the chart below, over one quarter of all who voted favour precious metals in 2012. A close second was Agriculture, with almost one fifth of all votes. Commodities, an asset class that still remains in a secular bull market, received a total of 54% of all votes (more than half).
Other asset classes that were preferred by readers of the Short Side Of Long blog were the US Dollar with 14% of votes and US Equities with 10% of votes. It should be noted that Global Equities received 22% of all votes, while Global Bonds received only 6%.
Altogether, risk assets (Equities, Commodities, Currencies) received 80% of all votes, while safe havens (Bonds, Dollar, Yen) received 21% - with a margin of error being about 1%. While it seems that majority of the readers on this blog being bullish for 2012 is a bit worrying, I would say that it was a contrarian outlook when compared to what Wall Street consensus expected. That would also mean that majority of the readers and followers of this blog would have had a very nice January, when it comes to the performance.
So with the S&P 500 closing just shy of 1350 last night (US trade), over the coming few days or a week, we will be running a poll wondering if S&P 500 will print 1,300 or 1,400 first. Let us know what you think...
1300 vote today and anticipate a lower reading.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see if/when and how much of a pull back is in the cards.
What do you think the chances are of a war with Iran in the near future? It seems this has gone past the point of no return unfortunately. But Iran with a nuke.............
Iran violated the only inviolable rule set by the USA - Never deviate from the petro-dollar arrangement. You are right, we are past the point of no return. Short of backing off from the agreement with China and Russia to settle bilateral trade in their own currencies and refute India's proposal of buying Iranian oil with gold, war is inevitable. America will not allow USD lose its extrinsic value and reserve currency status without a fight. The soldiers and weapons deployed to the Persian gulf are not there to fish.
DeleteIts hard to say what the chances of war are. If you asked Mr Obama I am pretty sure he would know much better than me. Having said that, eventually Middle East will blow up and Oil and Gold will go to the sky - this is a secular commodity bull market!
DeleteTiho: This one is in the hands of Israel and not the US.
ReplyDeleteGold and oil did not trade to the sky when the US attacked Iraq in the two Gulf wars.
Buy the rumor, sell the fact for gold and oil?
Sell the rumor and buy the fact for the stock markets?
You're probably right with the Israel comment. On the other hand, you will notice Gold and Oil do well when Middle East wars occur.
ReplyDeleteLILY,
ReplyDeleteI take it you have also read Currency Wars by James Rickards?