Today's chart of the day shows speculator positioning on the Euro Dollar exchange rate by the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released yesterday. As we can see, the overall net short position has now hit a new record high of -127,879 net shorts. On top of that Small Trader position is also net short at -28,748, which means Commercial position total of 156,627 net longs - which is also a new record.
The outlook on Europe, Euro and PIIGS is so negative now, that every single man and his dog on CNBC or Bloomberg believe things will only get worse as of next year. Well, quite to the contrary, I took a bet with my best friend over a bottle of Dom Perignon, that the Euro will not go to parity like majority of clowns on CNBC believe and instead we will make a new high above $1.49 in the up and coming rally in 2012!
What do you say? Do I have a chance?
Short term pop, yes; over 1.49, hard to see.
ReplyDelete1.49 seems impossible. Range for 2012: 1.20 - 1.38
ReplyDeletewith the current eurozone problems, there is no way euro will reach 1.49. you will be buying a dom perigean bottle.
ReplyDeleteWell, if the Euro has another "disastrous" year like 2011 you will win! The Euro finished 2011 roughly where it started, and reached 14940 in between. By the way, BetOnMarkets.com are pricing your bet at nearly 3/1, so you'll deserve 3 bottles...
ReplyDeleteMark
Tiho:
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year and a best wishes for 2012. I think you have special guests from CNBC writing on your blog in here-maybe they will put up some Foster's Beer short against your long on the Euro. I sure hope you win big time.
Hehe my chances don't seem to look good "currently" judging by some comments. Perfect I say, the more disbelief there is, there better chance I shall have.
ReplyDeleteMark - three bottles would be nice and if I get it wrong, I take it the I would only pay one bottle back in return. Somehow my close friend would not think that is a fare gentlemen's bet!
Last Anonymous - Happy new year! Forster's short comment made me laugh. Us Aussies seem to have a few "icons" when it comes to global alcohol hehe!
right here from the euro-epicentre my view is that all upswings will be used as a selling opportunity, and rightly so. That said, Happy New Year to Tiho and you all. Thanks for this blog!
ReplyDeleteEuro going lower without a doubt!
ReplyDeleteI don't know how high the Euro will go, but I agree with Tiho that it should bounce nicely.
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