- Monday: Luxury Sector Signalling Chinese Slowdown
- Wednesday: Sentiment Update
- Saturday: S&P's 2011 Performance Poll
The relief rally continues with risk assets. Commodities and equities had a stelar week, while Government Bonds and the US Dollar experienced sell offs. This week I will be away travelling to Hong Kong so posting might be more limited. Majority of the weeks headlines should be dominated by EU debt crisis meetings and US earnings reports.
On that note, I hope everyone has enjoyed their weekend and does so with the up and coming week! Last but not least, if you haven't voted in the poll, please do let us know where you think S&P 500 is heading for the rest of the year...
Hi Tiho,
ReplyDeleteHow do you see Cocoa? I Think is a good oportunity for a Long position
Good Trip.
Hagen
My regards to Ned Kelley's ..................if still in HK
ReplyDeleteHagen - Cocoa is about to bottom in my opinion. Maybe there is more selling to come, but I think we are very close now. Sentiment is extremely bearish on this commodity right now.
ReplyDeleteThank you Tiho.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your email?
Hagen
tihobrkan@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteTiho:
ReplyDeleteGold stocks sold off badly today. Any thoughts here?
Tiho, stock sentiment indicators 1)Put call ratio 2)AAII 3)Sentiment Trader indicator 4)TSP survey all return to neutral level form pessimism.(During bear market, market sentitment barely reach optimistic level) In addition, Biggs turns bullish towards the market. Also Dollar Index seems to find support in these two days.I think the rebound is close to an end.What is your view?
ReplyDeleteA point I want to explain more is that credit market sill is worried. Spread of yield between Germany and France, Libor-OIS spread and Ted spread all keep rising and diverge from stock market. It is really a bad sign.
ReplyDeleteSilver price needs to convincingly pierce the lower limit of $20 in order to invalidate the 10 year long bullish Tsang's conduit lines.
ReplyDeleteI remain short term bearish on precious metals sector, including gold, silver and corresponding stocks. However, I wouldn't short anything here, because Gold has already dropped about $300 or so and Silver almost halved at one point. I would rather be looking at buy if they sell off strongly with another leg down.
ReplyDeleteBo - it might be time to add to some US Dollar longs or maybe short the equity market again. I would look at shorting Nasdaq and stocks like Apple and Amazon. Until these stocks crack, have a meaningful correction and make new lows the bear market is not over in my opinion. I also laughed when Biggs turned bullish again... quite remarkable.