Deviating From Long Term Trends

S&P 500

S&P 500 is currently in a secular bear market, which means a trading range as inflation adjustment occurs towards the downside. However, in saying that, one of the great buying opportunities in our lifetime occurred with S&P 500's crash during the Global Financial Crisis, when the index traded over 35% away from its 200 day moving average. This point was one of the most oversold events since the 1929 crash, within the equity market. Currently, S&P 500 is still trading above its 200 day moving average, and therefore no buying opportunities are currently present. Since the market price has doubled since March 2009, even if the price was to trade below the 200 day moving average, I would not see it as a buying opportunity, as a believe the next cyclical move will be to the downside.

10 Yr Treasury Note

Interest rates on the 10Yr Treasury Note have been in a secular bull market since 1981. However, with the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, government bonds in the US stages a secular panic low, where interest rates on the 10 Year Note fell to a low of almost 2.0%. Obviously this is my opinion, as the market itself has not started an interest rate rise. However, in saying that, if one is willing to speculate that we are at the end of the 30 year Kondratieff Wave, than we are fast approaching that point now, where the 10 Year Yield relative to its 200 day moving average is becoming quite neutral. Bull or bear, what is your view?

Crude Oil

Long term for Crude Oil prices remain towards the upward bias. One of the great buying opportunities in our lifetime occurred with Crude Oil's crash during the Global Financial Crisis, when Oil traded almost 70% away from its 200 day moving average. This point was one of the most oversold events that ever occurred within the financial markets for a major asset class. Currently, Oil is still trading above its 200 day moving average, and therefore no buying opportunities are currently present.

Gold

Gold remains in a secular rising bull market. In recent months however, there hasn't been a proper buying opportunity. As a matter of fact, this is quite true since the Global Financial Crisis, when Gold traded almost 20% away from its 200 day moving average. This point was one of the most oversold in the last 15 years and therefore a great entry point. Currently, Gold still resumes it "parabolic" looking move, and therefore no buying opportunities are currently present, as the price keeps persisting upwards, always staying above the 200 day moving average.

US Dollar Trade Weighted Index

Long term trend remains down for the US Dollar, however it is not very wise to short the US Dollar at the current time, because the price is still a few percent away from the 200 day moving average. Good short opportunities occur, as we can see from the chart above, when the price rallies above the 200 day moving average and it becomes overbought in a major secular downtrend.